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06/27/2005 - Career Education Breakout? (CECO)

06/27/2005: A strong upward surge today on volume of approx 3.5 million shares versus long and short-term average volume of 2.3 and 1.9 million shares/day resulted in CECO closing up $2.02 or 5.56%. Today's action was in sympathy to the SEC Investigation coming to an end in ITT Educational Services Inc (ITT). The entire Educational Services Sector got a lift from this news.

We were hesitant to add CECO to our portfolio as recently as the beginning of June when it emerged from the downtrend that has been in place since December 2004. The reason for that was the up days did not present us with the conviction of an accompanying surge in volume. Today, however, was different, and the lifting of even a small amount of potental of bad news could well lead to a resurgence in a sector that has been in the doldrums of late. An encouraging sign was that the price held up on increasing volume in the last hour of trading -- a sure sign of a return of interest by the so-called smart money. Perhaps this is not surprising, considering the company's recent hiring of the well-respected Steven M Calbi as its Senior VP and Chief Internal Auditor, an enlightened appointment in a sector where regulatory risk is fairly high.

We were watching CECO today, alerted in part by the significant gap move from the open and added it to the GI portfolio late in the day at $38.20, with an initial stop at $36, and will maintain a trailing stop of 8% from the highs if the price continues to appreciate.

In other action today, we were fairly close to being stopped out of MCRI.


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