How to build an Extreme Retirement Plan
2007-04-03 22:26 | Posted by The Graham Investor | Permanent Link | GeneralA recent, lengthy email that hit our inbox promised that an "Extreme Value" retirement plan which uses a "unique and little-known investment strategy" would double or triple our money with low risk.
Intrigued, yet suspecting this was another bit of marketing hype, we read the entire email thoroughly word for word over and over again because sometimes this gives insights into the strategy being employed.
One stock being touted in the email as the "85% Blue Chip Bond" is (courtesy of a Google search) almost certainly Home Depot (HD). On Home Depot's website, a press release states:
"The Company increased its quarterly dividend by 50 percent in January 2006, resulting in a 275 percent increase over the past five years. In addition, since 2002, the Company has repurchased 349 million shares, or 17 percent of outstanding shares. The Home Depot demonstrated strong financial discipline, as evidenced by a return on invested capital of 23.7 percent for the second quarter of fiscal year 2006."
You could have discovered Home Depot as a potential undervalued investment yourself, using the BMW Method. As recently as summer of 2006, it was trading in the $33-$34 range as seen on the HD CAGR chart. Having reached $41 since then, it has now fallen back to the $37-$38 level and is still a reasonable investment, considering its Morningstar Rating is 5 stars. (Tip: The excellent Morningstar PDF reports are free with OptionsXpress brokerage accounts.)
Home Depot is affected by the downturn in the housing market, but with a 2 or 3 year outlook, it is likely to provide good returns in that period.
Another company featured in the email is Plains Exploration & Production Co (PXP). We had not heard of this company, but the email states that PXP has the rights to extract up to 688 million barrels of oil reserves from beneath Los Angeles. According to our GI quote, PXP has a Price/CFO below 5 which indicates value, and its intrinsic value is $58 which is well above the current price of almost $46. Debt to Equity is 0.2. PXP warrants further investigation.
Finally, the email mentions a company which Century Management's Arnold Van Den Berg calls "an amazing situation". Luckily we had recently read an Excerpt of Century's excellent newsletter "Oustanding Investor Digest"which will tell you that this particular company is none other than Microsoft. Certainly MSFT has been in the doldrums for a while, but it will do well now that Vista is released. Sales and earnings have been growing even as the stock price has gone nowhere. This cannot last, and surely Microsoft's price will have to go up to reflect this.
What this email shows, even though we doubt the newsletter is worth the cost (at least for any investor with the knowledge, determination and cunning to discover value plays unaided) is that there is value out there - even as the market as a whole has been reaching new highs - and Blue Chip value at that. You can always spice your retirement portfolio with extreme value, just by looking at out-of-favour large caps.