Low Price To Operating Cash Flow - Does It Work?
2006-01-17 10:20 | Posted by The Graham Investor | Permanent Link | Screen PerformanceThat said, in July 2005 we started saving the results of the weekly screen for Low Price To Operating Cash Flow Ratio. The following stocks appeared in the screen (in no particular order) as of July 21st, 2005: ALO, ACGL, ARBA, VOXX, BRP, CNA, ELP, CGA, GFR, IKN, LAB, NWLIA, OPY, TSD, UTSI.
As an experiment, we created a hypothetical portfolio of $1000
worth of each of the aforementioned stocks as at the close of July
21st, 2005. The results as of 13th January, 2006 are tabulated below,
showing a gain of 26.57% for just under 6 months. In the same period,
the S&P 500 gained 8.67%. Of of the 15 stocks, only 3 show a loss,
with the largest deficit being -17.53%. The largest gains were 109.58%
and 100.16% or well over 300% annualized.
In my view, this is proof that effectiveness of a low Price vs. Cash
Flow from Operations which, although not in itself a true Graham
screen, is enhanced by screening further in a more Grahamian way in
order to find stocks trading below book value.
A good way to use this screen over a longer period of time would be
select from it a number of stocks that you are comfortable with, after
doing your due diligence, and accumulating them monthly via
Sharebuilder or foliofn for example, as long as they remain on the screen. When
they disappear from the screen, stop buying them and replace with a new
stock or stocks from the screen. This will ensure you are always buying
value. As for when to sell, at least a year is always best for tax
purposes, but that is really up to you.
I hope that this gives some idea of the power of using screens like
this one in a disciplined way. We hope to see in a similar fashion how
well this portfolio and hopefully one from the Graham Number Screen is
doing in a few months time.
The Graham Investor
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