Interview With Mr Market

by The Graham Investor on October 3, 2011

Exclusive! The Graham Investor has staged an amazing interview with Mr Market. Never before has anyone managed to interview this elusive fellow. The interview gives us a new insight into what goes on in the mind of one of the most enigmatic figures of history. Still going strong, and still beguiling investors, traders, and journalists, Mr Market pulls no punches in this amazing interview.

TGI: Thank you for agreeing to this interview. Benjamin Graham once attempted to explain your behavior in a nutshell, suggesting that you came along each day and set a ridiculously high price or a ridiculously low price for an equity or a group of equities, and that the average investor would be well-placed to ignore you and seek his own counsel regarding valuations. What do you feel about that?

Mr Market: <mumbling> <laughing> Yes, I heard about that. I can’t speak for Mr Graham – he is dead, after all – but I am still going strong. I’ve been doing this for a few centuries now….I mean, back in 1637 when people were pretty much gambling on tulip bulbs, they were trying to pin it on me even back then. It has been ever thus: every time some bubble/bust or other comes along, they say Mr Market is up to his usual crazy tricks again, setting ridiculous prices. I tell you, one of these days I need to get myself a teflon coat.

TGI: But you do appear to be the one setting prices. Are you denying this?

Mr Market: Actually, I’m not. I’ll set prices according to what most investors are willing to pay. And, believe it or not, they usually are willing to pay outrageous prices. You see, the human mind doesn’t want to miss what it thinks is a “good thing”. Whether or not the skewed prices I set are good or bad is neither here nor there, as long as there are buyers and sellers – and there always are. And the fact is, most of them just follow the herd and lose their shirt. I don’t cause the boom and bust, I just take advantage of it. It’s fun for me to watch, it never gets old <laughs manically>.

TGI: There are a number of investors who believe in a system called “reversion to the mean”. What is your opinion of this?

Mr Market: It’s funny, I mean – who are they to say what the mean is? I’m the one who sets the mean, and I can move it anywhere I damn well like. They should rename their system “reversion to a moving target” or something like that. Pshaw!

TGI: What about value investors? Those who focus on fundamentals of individual stocks and attempt to ignore what you are doing?

Mr Market: Ah, I see where you’re going with this. Back to Mr Graham again. I have to say I try to suck these guys in as well, but it doesn’t seem to work with a select few – Graham was one, Buffett another – Sometimes I manage to trap them by setting ridiculous prices on worthless stocks and it works, but in general these investors are somewhat harder to throw off course than the sheep.

TGI: In the last few months, you’ve been putting in a lot of overtime with the wild swings. Can you explain your thinking? Do you use the news to influence where you go on a daily basis?

Mr Market: Ha, that would be telling. Better to keep my cards close to my chest. Tomorrow is another day and I could go either way….I’m sure there’s a few pundits trying to predict what I’m going to do next! Truth be told, these people haven’t got a clue.  The news, nah – as you’ve probbly noticed I frequently go against what the news might suggest. I like to keep the element of surprise, stir things up and keep it fresh. So, while I do glance at the news, it really isn’t the be all and end all of where I decide to go with prices.

TGI: So those who espouse the “random walk theory” have a point?

Mr Market: Those people! They seem to be suggesting I am a drunkard or something. The gall! Nothing I do is ever random! Everything I do is totally premediated. It just looks random to these people. As usual they don’t have answers, so they come up with this elaborate theory to explain what I do. In the long run, I’ll disprove it of course – I am far smarter then they are. And you can print that I said that!

TGI: You look a bit tired, have you been getting enough sleep?

Mr Market: Sleep? Pah! I don’t need much of that. I can function fine on little sleep, I’m having too much fun, after all. Otherwise I wouldn’t still be doing this, would I?

TGI: Well, there have been suggestions you might be a manic depressive. Do you take these reports seriously?

Mr Market: Of course not! I mean, how dare you! There’s nothing wrong with me of course. I’m perfectly sane if that’s what you wanted to know; I just have a higher order thought process than most everyone else.

TGI: What about 1929. Aren’t you sorry for all the economic destruction you caused back then? Surely you must have some feeling for all the people who lost their livelihood for many years? How low can you go?

Mr Market: Remember, I just set the prices. I am not responsible for the welfare of anyone who buys and sells at those prices. It might seem callous to you, but that’s the way it is. It’s my business. It’s really no different from the way banks do business, is it? As for how low, I haven’t gotten to zero yet. Perhaps one day.

TGI: Please let me know when that day comes, in advance.

Mr Market: <Laughs>

TGI: Seriously. Lots of value investors might like to buy at zero.

Mr Market: <Snorts> I guess I should start thinking of negative numbers!

TGI: Thank you Mr Market, nice having you here. Goodnight.

FacebookGoogle GmailStumbleUponTwitterSlashdotWordPressDeliciousDiggMySpaceGoogle ReaderRedditTechnorati FavoritesBlogger PostGoogle BookmarksRead It LaterPrintFriendlyShare

{ 5 comments }

Do Not Fear “Mr Market”.

by The Graham Investor on August 16, 2011

The recent market turmoil has many investors – and quite possibly their investments – in a spin. Several days of 400+ point swings, however, are of little concern to value investors. As Graham might say, this type of market behaviour just shows “Mr Market” at his psychotic best. “His enthusiasm or his fears run away with him and the values he proposes seem little short of silly”, said Ben eloquently. From around 12,700 near the end of July, the Dow plummeted 2,000 points in little more than two weeks.

Why is this irrational, you might ask? Well, nothing really has fundamentally changed with the majority of the companies that make up the Dow (or the S&P for that matter). The only thing that happened recently is that fear had entered the equation – fear that the US economy might stall further due to a combination of things – losing the AAA credit rating, sky-high deficits, high oil prices, unemployment, etc. Although these might be seen as playing long-term havoc with the economy, in reality their effect may only be fleeting in the great scheme of things. As President Roosevelt declared in his inaugural address on March 4, 1933, in reference to the economic challenges of the Great Depression:

“This great Nation will endure as it has endured, will revive and will prosper. So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance. In every dark hour of our national life a leadership of frankness and vigor has met with that understanding and support of the people themselves which is essential to victory. I am convinced that you will again give that support to leadership in these critical days.”

So it is today. Why should we fear the future? It’s not here yet. There are still good investments out there. Quite possibly, fear and paralysis and unjustified terror about our economic future today are just by-products of having access to several orders of magnitude more news and media resources than in 1933 as opposed to having anything to do with any serious economic decline. Paralysis by analysis, if you will. In reality, the current malaise in the economy is nothing remotely close to what happened in the 1930s.

I am not suggesting we all shun the media and become Internet-avoiding hermits. Far from it. But it is clear that everyone in the United States (or any other country, for that matter) can play a part in an economic recovery, just by their actions. It can be as simple as always making an effort to buy locally-produced goods. But, especially, making the effort to investigate and buy stock in excellent undervalued companies. There’s no reason for anyone to stop investing because the market is down – in fact, there are more opportunities than there were a month ago. You just have to look. In a year or two, 10,700 on the Dow may seem like a distant memory.

In one of his Letters to Shareholders many years ago, Warren Buffett wrote: “When the market plummets—as it will from time to time—neither panic nor mourn. It’s good news for Berkshire.” What’s good news for Berkshire should also be good news to everyone else who is a value investor, because this philosophy has stood Buffett in good stead over the years. So, do not fear Mr Market. Rather, see his idiosyncrasies for the opportunities they really are.

FacebookGoogle GmailStumbleUponTwitterSlashdotWordPressDeliciousDiggMySpaceGoogle ReaderRedditTechnorati FavoritesBlogger PostGoogle BookmarksRead It LaterPrintFriendlyShare

{ 12 comments }

Benjamin Graham’s 10 Rules – Still Valid Today?

May 7, 2011

Much has been made of Benjamin Graham’s so-called “10 Rules” for selecting stocks. In his later years, having started to focus more on earnings and dividends than assets, Ben condensed his six decades of investing experience into ten apparently straightforward rules in order to help the intelligent investor select value stocks. The ten rules produced [...]

FacebookGoogle GmailStumbleUponTwitterSlashdotWordPressDeliciousDiggMySpaceGoogle ReaderRedditTechnorati FavoritesBlogger PostGoogle BookmarksRead It LaterPrintFriendlyShare
Read the full article →

Adams Golf (ADGF) Comes Good With Record Earnings

May 7, 2011

When we looked at Adams Golf back in August 2009, we concluded that Adams had a catalyst to get back to the $6 range, and a book value just north of $7. Fast-forward to May 2011, and Adams have announced record sales results for the first Quarter of this year. The results – announced May [...]

FacebookGoogle GmailStumbleUponTwitterSlashdotWordPressDeliciousDiggMySpaceGoogle ReaderRedditTechnorati FavoritesBlogger PostGoogle BookmarksRead It LaterPrintFriendlyShare
Read the full article →

The Miracle of Consistency in Investing

March 6, 2011

The Physicist Albert Einstein once said “The most powerful force in the universe is compound interest”. That may be true for interest bearing investments such as Treasuries, Bonds, CDs, savings accounts, but not necessarily for stocks – the compounding of stock portfolios is more erratic and affected by all sorts of factors. I am going [...]

FacebookGoogle GmailStumbleUponTwitterSlashdotWordPressDeliciousDiggMySpaceGoogle ReaderRedditTechnorati FavoritesBlogger PostGoogle BookmarksRead It LaterPrintFriendlyShare
Read the full article →

More Stock Screen Updates

December 1, 2010

It’s been a while since I posted anything here but I’m a firm believer in not posting for posting’s sake. If you haven’t got something important to say…don’t say anything! Anyway, we’re rolling out some updates to the screens. A couple of updates so far are: Updated Piotroski Score Screen.  Limited it to the 600 [...]

FacebookGoogle GmailStumbleUponTwitterSlashdotWordPressDeliciousDiggMySpaceGoogle ReaderRedditTechnorati FavoritesBlogger PostGoogle BookmarksRead It LaterPrintFriendlyShare
Read the full article →

How to Become a Great Investor

June 26, 2010

We all want to emulate Buffett, Graham, Klarman, Ruane, Greenblatt et al. Their success as value investors is not in doubt. But how did they achieve it? I recently read several related books: “Bounce” by Matthew Syed, Malcolm Gladwell’s “Outliers” and Levitt & Dubner’s excellent sequel to “Freakonomics” – “SuperFreakonomics”. A common theme in all [...]

FacebookGoogle GmailStumbleUponTwitterSlashdotWordPressDeliciousDiggMySpaceGoogle ReaderRedditTechnorati FavoritesBlogger PostGoogle BookmarksRead It LaterPrintFriendlyShare
Read the full article →

On Selling – Some Thoughts on When to Fold ‘Em

March 5, 2010

Much is made of stock buying strategies, but the truth is nobody makes a dime from their investments until they sell. Selling stock is easy – knowing when to sell maybe not so much. Or is it? It certainly should be. Ben Graham variously suggests keeping stocks for 2 years, and/or selling 50% of a [...]

FacebookGoogle GmailStumbleUponTwitterSlashdotWordPressDeliciousDiggMySpaceGoogle ReaderRedditTechnorati FavoritesBlogger PostGoogle BookmarksRead It LaterPrintFriendlyShare
Read the full article →

Sanofi-Aventis – Longer Term Recovery?

February 7, 2010

Come Wednesday, February 10, French drugmaker Sanofi-Aventis (ADR: SNY), maker of blockbuster bloodthinner Plavix will announce Fourth Quarter results for 2009. We came across SNY in a “January Effect” review of sectors. In short, the “January Effect” – more than adequately referenced elsewhere on the web – basically states that how stocks do in January [...]

FacebookGoogle GmailStumbleUponTwitterSlashdotWordPressDeliciousDiggMySpaceGoogle ReaderRedditTechnorati FavoritesBlogger PostGoogle BookmarksRead It LaterPrintFriendlyShare
Read the full article →

Slight Changes to NCAV Screens

February 6, 2010

Since quite a few people requested it, and there were many questions such as “Why isn’t XXX showing up on the NCAV screen?” I have decided to remove the criterion of positive Operating Cash Flow. This will probably lead to more stocks showing up on the screen. OCF will still be displayed and you can [...]

FacebookGoogle GmailStumbleUponTwitterSlashdotWordPressDeliciousDiggMySpaceGoogle ReaderRedditTechnorati FavoritesBlogger PostGoogle BookmarksRead It LaterPrintFriendlyShare
Read the full article →