Is it not too optimistic?

MrEsc....quite possibly, yes. If you look at our quote for KOSP, It has the IV a shade over $80, which is in the vicinity of the current price. Mind you it's had a pretty impressive and powerful run since May, which makes you wonder if that will continue.

One question, regarding the EPS of 3.37 above: is that for 2005 or 2006? The formula uses the Current Year estimated EPS not Next Year's estimated EPS. The % growth figure above is broadly the same as what we used, however.

$3.37 was a EPS last 12 Months before NRI. I've made new table based on "consensus estimates for current fiscal year" and a column for "fiscal year end date". It is still too optimistic.

With normalizing faktor of 4.40/5.79 (last column) is it more realistic, but not with the current 10yr AA corporation bond yield of 4.59. Here it is:

 

 

Calculation error? The formula is "Current EPS" * (8.5+(2*"Est.Growth Rate")) * (4.40/4.59)  ???

Hi, I do not want to disturb the flow. But both MrEsc's calculations are nowhere near $80. So, John, if you could show the calculations, that would be really helpful in understanding the picture. vb

Guys:

I had a look at the code for the calculations and discovered an incorrect value being picked up from
the supplied data for EPS. I have corrected this. IV for JOSP is $104. I am now in the process of
rebuilding the entire DB since the IV will have changed upwards for most stocks. I don't think this
will make a huge difference though as we were fairly conservative with IV estimates in the first place.
Maybe we'll see more stocks on the IV screen as a result.

The only difference between MrEsc's formula and the one used here is we use the 20Y AA Bond yield
(currently 5.51), and therefore the estimated IV is somewhat more conservative as a result.

Thank you both for all your observations; it certainly helps to have a fresh pair of eyes looking
at the data so I can improve the screens.

As per my previous post, the screens have now been re-done. See news item http://www.grahaminvestor.com/news/screen-updates

Thanks!

TGI