Are there any other value screens that might be useful? Or information
that might be useful to value investors. We're always open to improvements.

Hi Keownb, thanks for doing the grahaminvestor.com site. I find the stock quote with the calculation of NCAV helpful, wish I could
(1)just enter another symbol without having to go back on the browser to the previous page.
(2)run the scans as if it was some date in the past..monthly or quarterly would be great. I'd like to do some back-testing to see how a strategy that used the scans would have performed.
Thanks, Bill

Bill, thanks for your post. Glad you like the site. Regarding 1), I
think I can change the stock quote to pop up in a new window if that
will help. 2) is a little more tricky and will require some significant
programming but it's a great idea and I will certainly look into it! I
appreciate the suggestion.

Hey Bosco,



I noticed you recently added an Altman Z-Score to the quote page. 
I had never heard of Altman before, but am quite fascinated.



According to Investopedia, the Z-Score is 72% accurate.  Is this true?  I found an old article
on Forbes from 2003 and none of the companies listed have gone bankrupt
since or even had their stock take a dive.  Perhaps the strategy
works better for small- or micro-caps who can't refinance as easily?



Do you think the strategy is accurate enough to create a screen? 
Also, do you know of any reliable screens for shorting stocks?





Thanks,



-theo

Theo:

Your questions are relevant. I myself would dispute the 72% figure. Bankruptcy is always a last resort as the Forbes article states. However, I'd use the Z-Score as a guide more than anything else. If you see a Z-Score of 6 for example, you might feel a bit more confident about a company's financial strength. If you saw one at 3.5, you might want to monitor it or do some Due Diligence. And if you saw one below 3, you might not necessarily see it as going bankrupt but you'd want to take a pretty good squiz at the books. I notice for example that some of the auto manufacturers like Ford and GM have really low Z-Scores. I would attribute these to the high capital costs of this type of business, and not necessarily rule them out. GM for example, is a very complex business and does not just make cars -- they're also involved in financing and insurance. I don't think any one measure can provide a one-size-fits-all answer, however it can be a useful tool to add to our toolbox.

I'm not going to create a screen out of the Z-Score; rather it would be good to use as a supplement to the NCAV screens, especially the original Graham "Bargain Stock" screen to help weed out the potential failures.

As for shorting, the only such screen I know of is the one mentioned in Tharp's book "Safe Strategies" which picks stocks with a price/sales over 15, large market cap over $1B, which have been declining for a while. I have never used it myself so can't say if it works well.